Strategy for Iraq: A Two-State Idea

With the passing of the November elections, which were generally interpreted as an expression of the American public's dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq, strategies for changing direction in the war-torn country have been offered by several individuals and groups, with the most notable being Senator Biden's Plan for Iraq and the Baker-Hamilton panel's Iraq Study Group report.

Throughout the seemingly endless discussions about which strategy is best, the assumption that Iraq would remain a unified country has prevailed. But given the increasing levels of sectarian violence and the continuing lack of effort on the part of Iraqis to work toward national reconciliation, let's consider here the idea of abandoning the one-Iraq policy in favor of a true division into two newly independent states.

Opponents and Proponents

President Bush has repeatedly stated that he is opposed to any plan that provides for the division of Iraq, as has Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Most of Iraq's neighbors and the leaders of the Sunni-led insurgency have voiced their opposition as well, with regional states fearing a loss of their Sunni buffer with Iran and with Iraq's former ruling minority understanding that any Sunni region they would inhabit would be devoid of oil resources and economically stagnant.

Proponents of dividing Iraq include several Shiite, Kurdish, and American lawmakers, as well as many citizens of both Iraq and the United States. The divisions proposed so far all create three largely autonomous regions with a limited national assembly that would maintain a single Iraqi state. Provisions for such regions are written into the Iraqi constitution, and Senator Biden has advocated them in his plan.