Obama - McCain: Where the Race Stands

Writing for Real Clear Politics, Jay Cost examines the current state of the race for the Presidency between Senators Barack Obama and John McCain.

In his analysis, Cost looks at the effect of the recent financial crisis on each candidate's poll numbers. The data presented show a clear decline for McCain coupled with a corresponding rise for Obama since the current mess began to come to light.

From the seizing of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the federal government to the first White House meeting on a way forward, McCain has dropped more than 3 points in the Real Clear Politics average of polls while Obama has risen more than 2 points. Using Cost's numbers, Obama polled at 47.9 percent while McCain came in at 43.3 percent.

Prior to the crisis, the race was essentially a dead heat, with McCain reducing his deficit in the polls following his selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate and the close of the Republican National Convention. "Currently," Cost says, "the race stands roughly where it did in June, though McCain is in a slightly better position."

What should be most troubling for McCain supporters, though, is not the Real Clear Politics national average. In presidential elections, national polls mean little except as an indicator of the larger mood of the country. The swing toward Obama in the national polling average is not nearly as important as the swing toward Obama in key battleground states. Some states will always vote Republican, and some states will always vote Democrat. But it is the battleground states that will determine the election. And that is where McCain is showing signs of distress. While some battleground states are firming up their positions, others, like Virginia, Florida and Ohio, are very close and within the polling margin of error. There has been a trend toward Obama in the battleground states, but it is unclear at this point if that trend will continue.