Gallup Poll Gives Obama His Biggest Lead Over McCain

The polls between Barack Obama and John McCain have not had very large margins during this election. Even when Obama had the lead most of the summer, and even when McCain came back after bringing Sarah Palin onboard, the polls were usually tight. In recent weeks, as Obama has taken the decisive lead in the polls, the numbers still usually had a 5 point or so lead. But Obama may have hit his biggest peak with the most recent Gallup poll, putting him with a double digit lead over McCain for the first time.

The Gallup national poll was taken before the debate, with interviews and polling conducted between October 5-7. In the Gallup poll, Obama had 52% support, while McCain's support was down to 41%. The poll was done with a focus group of 2,747 people interviewed, with a plus/minus margin of error of 2%.

As recently as the poll taken between September 8-14, McCain was ahead of Obama. But, as noted by pretty much every single pundit and commentator in the country by now, the economy began McCain's downfall. 59% of Americans in the Gallup poll now view the economy as poor, which is a high during this crisis.

All of this data came before the second Presidential debate on Tuesday night. With many polls suggesting that Obama won that debate, these poll numbers are expected to get even larger in the first post-debate polls.

The Gallup poll was taken between October 5-7, right around the time that Bill Ayers and the Keating 5 were drudged up by the McCain and Obama camps. All the talk before the debate was how McCain was using the character issue and doubts about Obama's past to get back in the race.

The Gallup poll suggests that, at least for that weekend, the strategy did not work in the polls.

The Gallup and national poll numbers match the totals in the electoral college, as more swing states now lean for Obama or have already turned into solid Democratic states. All the numbers indicate that Obama only needs to win a few states in 2004 that Bush carried to win the election.

Currently, Obama is ahead or tied in at least six, in Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia.

Sources