Presidential Polls in Colorado

Obama Has a 5-point Lead, but McCain's Not Giving Up on the Centennial State

Two weeks before Election Day, presidential polls in Colorado show a five-point lead for Barack Obama over John McCain. The difference is substantial, but not insurmountable for the Republican ticket. George W. Bush twice won the nine Colorado electoral votes, and John McCain and Sarah Palin have both campaigned hard in the state in recent weeks.

Further, Colorado has a very small black population, so the Bradley factor will likely play a role. The Bradley theory suggests a certain percentage of voters will say they are voting for the black candidate in polls, but change their mind in the privacy of the polling booth.

The presidential polls in Colorado have led to predictions all over the map. The Guardian suggests McCain has already surrendered the state. In reality, I don't see either side giving up on this potential battleground state before the last ballot is cast on Nov. 4.

National Public Radio today discussed what Colorado Democrats might consider a doomsday scenario. The story outlines a mock court hearing held in Colorado to deal with a fiercely contested election that winds up in the judicial system. Sound familiar? NPR is not the first outlet to suggest Colorado could become this year's Florida — a ridiculed land of hanging chads, all-night hand tallies and righteous indignation over late absentee ballots.

No matter which candidate you support, we can all agree that would not be a desirable scenario. Denver doesn't need another media circus, and America doesn't need another unclear presidential election.

But I digress. Let's get back to those presidential polls in Colorado. Two good sources for aggregate polling data and lists of polls are RealClearPolitics.com and electoral-vote.com.

As the name suggests, RealClearPolitics is like SportsCenter for political junkies. It might be overkill for some, but others could just sit glued to this site nonstop through Nov. 4. Anyway, the site lists five presidential polls in Colorado in the last 10 days. The oldest is a Quinnipiac/Wall Street Journal poll taken Oct. 8 through 12. This poll has Obama up by nine points.