Good Election Day Weather Indeed Helps Democrats, Professors Say

Three College Profs Say Republicans Benefit when Rain, Snow Reduce Voter Turnout

John McCain and the Republicans just can't seem to catch a break against Barack Obama and the Democrats.

Ideal weather is forecast for Election Day across much of the nation to promote voter turnout, including in the various swing battleground states that McCain must virtually sweep in order to have a chance. And of course, everyone knows that good weather benefits Democrats on Election Day, while Republicans pray for rain.

Everyone knows? Who says so? Why would good weather expand voter turnout for Democrats, while rain (or snow) would supress turnout and thereby help Republicans? Why not vice-versa?

A trio of political science professors asked the same questions three years ago. They say they found meteorological evidence that backs up the old political legend, based on the theory that more Democrats are low-income folks who have fewer resources to deal with bad weather.

Get this: The three profs assert that in 1960, Republican Richard M. Nixon probably would have defeated Democrat John F. Kennedy, if not for unusually good weather on election day that enhanced voter turnout for Democrats.

Here's more: If not for above-average rainfall in parts of Florida in 2000, Democrat Al Gore would have reaped the increased votes he needed to defeat Republican George W. Bush, Supreme Court or no Supreme Court.

Since these are such earthshaking revelations, you probably want to know the names of the three political science professors. They are Brad T. Gomez of the University of Georgia, Thomas G. Hansford of the University of California at Merced, and George A. Krause of the University of Pittsburgh.

They did not pursue their investigation on a lark. Their 31-page thesis states that they studied the past 14 presidential elections, relying on data from more than 22,000 U.S. weather stations in 3,115 counties. In other words, they were quite thorough. They found that each 1 inch of rain reduces voter turnout by 1 percent, while every 2 inches of snow also have a 1 percent effect.