Quake Predicted for West Coast - Without a Word to US at Risk

How many years have you heard the prediction that southern California is going to shake off its foundations and into the sea, falling to the mother of all earthquakes? Of course that's an exaggeration of fact, though a major quake is a virtual certainty for the area - sooner or later.

On Saturday, though, a much more specific prediction went out to emergency officials in western Canada, warning that a huge quake could be imminent in British Columbia, along the coast. The Globe and Mail reported the prediction Saturday, 4 January 2007, with the note that the Big One was expected sometime in the next week. Maybe.

The article quoted Dr. Gary Rogers (Pacific Geoscience Centre, Vancouver Island) as saying that the probability remains small but nonetheless real. He compared the chances of a big quake to the risk of a collision while driving. When you drive your car every day, he explained, you could be involved in a crash. But when driving in rush hour, the risk escalates. He said Vancouver Island is now in its "rush hour" in terms of seismology.

Notably missing were any comparable alerts to residents of the US northwest, who would also be at risk of damage from any resulting tsunami.

Trembling Subsides Sunday

Canada's earthquake tracking page said Sunday that the Episodic Tremor and Slip event appeared to have ended, after 24 hours without additional recorded "significant tremors." According to Canada's site, the subsidence of tremors likely means the danger has passed, at least for the moment.

Comparable seismic events occur in the area every fourteen to sixteen months. During each of those events, the potential for a major quake rises dramatically.