How Likely Are the Current Presidential Candidates

Barrack Obama seems an unlikely candidate for president. I know that lately there has been a lot of talk about Obama but it is difficult to take him seriously as a 2008 contender. His political experience is almost non-existent. He served one term as a state senator in Illinois and is now working on his very first term as a US senator. If he runs for the presidency in 2008 he will have less than four years experience in a national office. As far as I can tell, Obama's fame started when he gave the keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention in 2004. Beyond that speech there isn't much to say about Obama. If this were a horse race then Obama would definitely be a long shot. This is true because of his age, his ethnicity, and his religion. In 2008, Obama will only be 47 and this is a bit younger than presidential candidates tend to be. We've never even had a black or moslem running mate. So, this would mean that Obama would have to go from obscurity to winning at a young age with very little experience and not only be the first black president but the first moslem as well. This just doesn't seem very likely.