Why Ryan Howard Faces an Uphill Battle to Cooperstown

Ryan Howard had a tremendous year in 2006. He hit 58 HR's, had 149 RBI's, scored 104 Runs, while walking 108 times. His batting average was .313, his OBP was .425, and his SLG was .659. It was such a great year that Howard won the National League MVP award for 2006.

By any standards it was a year that is clearly Hall of Fame caliber. Indeed, there are many players in the Hall of Fame who have never had such a productive year. Clearly, on the basis of his 2006 season, Ryan Howard is a Hall of Fame type player. Yet there is one statistic of Ryan Howard's that will work against him for the rest of his career and likely keep him out of the Hall of Fame. What is that stat? His Age.

Ryan Howard was 26 years old this baseball season. It was his first full year playing in the Major Leagues. The vast majority of Hall of Famers have their first full season in the majors at around age 22. So Ryan Howard is already four years behind the curve of the typical Hall of Famer. Those are four years he can never get back. Let's take a closer statistical look at those four lost years, to illustrate just how much they are going to hurt Howard's chances of making the Hall.

Based upon his brilliant 2006 season, we can presume that if Ryan Howard had played in the majors for the previous four seasons he would have put up decent numbers. Let's say he would have averaged 30 HR's, 100 RBI's and 85 Runs scored. Over four years that would total 120 HR's, 400 RBI's and 340 Runs scored.

Howard did play briefly as a 24 year old, and half a season as a 25 year old, compiling a total of 27 HR's, 68 RBI's and 57 Runs scored. So if we subract what he did accomplish from what he might have done, we end up with 93 HR's, 332 RBI's and 283 Runs scored. I think that's a fair estimate of what Howard might have produced had his major league career gotten started at the age that the vast majority of Hall of Famers start their careers.

Ryan Howard will likely be chasing those numbers for the rest of his career in terms of getting into the Hall of Fame.