Manning Not a Shoe-in to Break All the Records

Many Factors Could Take Him Off Pace

With Brett Favre returning for another year with the Packers, it's almost a given that he will break several career records, including most wins, most pass attempts, most passing touchdowns and most passing yards.

Despite that, Favre has always downplayed the records because he believes some day they will all be shattered by Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning. It is a belief that is shared by many experts in the sport.

If things were guaranteed to remain the same as they are today, I would agree. Manning already has more yards and touchdown passes than Marino and Favre did at the same point in their careers and seems to set new season records every year. But, in the National Football League, nothing ever remains the same and fans shouldn't assume he will break the records.

First, there is the age factor. For the sake of argument, let's say Favre doesn't break the passing and touchdown records. As they stand now, at his current pace, Manning would need 5 years to break the touchdown record and 6 years to pass for more yards than Marino. And, if Favre does break them in 2007 and decides to return in 2008 (something that he hasn't ruled out) it will take even longer.

By the start of next season, Manning will be 31. With the exception of a very few, quarterbacks start seeing some physical decline by their mid 30s, usually very sudden and, by the time he's in a position to break the records, he may be well past his prime.

Assuming he is one of the rare quarterbacks like Favre and Marino who still are capable of putting up big numbers well into their 30s, that doesn't mean the guys around him are too.

Currently, Manning is able to take advantage of having arguably the best wide receiver in the league, Marvin Harrison and has an offensive line that has given up 49 sacks in the past 3 years (6 teams had 49 or more sacks last season alone). Harrison will be 35 in 2007. The offensive line is relatively young, with only two guys over the age of 30. However, with linemen receiving larger contracts than they have in the past, the team may not be able to afford to keep the entire line intact.