Run for the Roses: Beware of the No No's

There are overwhelming trends that can't be dismissed when handicapping the Kentucky Derby. I call them no no's. For instance, no 3-year-old unraced as a juvenile made it to the winner's circle since Apollo in 1882. Illinois Derby winner Greeley's Galaxy fits the bill. A big plus: juveniles who won races at a mile or longer. More than a dozen contenders qualify. Another big plus: three or four preps as a sophomore and at least one at 1 1/8 miles. Again many contenders satisfy this condition. No runner with only four career outings has smelled the roses since Exterminator in 1918. That was a bad omen for Blues and Royals, Godolphin Racing’s runaway winner of the UAE Derby in his only start this year. Worse yet is a respiratory infection that knocked him out of The Derby. Since '47, only Sunny's Halo in '83 won The Derby off two preps while 20 horses with a lone prep failed. Other top contenders in this category are the Nick Zito-trained Bellamy Road, impressive winner of the Wood Memorial; High Limit, second to Blue Grass Stakes winner Bandini; Closing Argument, third in the Blue Grass and winner of the Holy Bull Stakes; and Wilko, third in the Santa Anita Derby. No horse that captured the Santa Anita Derby has won the Kentucky Derby since Sunday Silence in ’89. However, six of the last 11 that hit the board did. Only two winners of the Blue Grass since the late ’70s captured The Derby: Strike the Gold, ’91, and Spectacular Bid, ’79. However, three who finished in the money won: Unbridled, third, ’90; Alysheba, third, ’87; and Gato Del Sol, ’82. Only two winners of the Wood Memorial since Seattle Slew’s victory in ’77 smelled the roses: Fusaichi Pegasus, ’00, and Pleasant Colony, ’81. However, Monarchos, second in ’01, won at Churchill Downs. So did the great Secretariat after running third before taking the ‘73 Triple Crown. Afleet Alex aims to become the third horse to win at Louisville after taking the Arkansas Derby, which dates back to ’36, joining Smarty Jones and Sunny’s Halo. No horse with a layoff of five weeks or more triumphed at Churchill Downs since Needles in ’56. Remember what happened last year to Florida Derby winner Friends Lake and fourth-place finisher Read the Footnotes – they came up empty. Unfortunately, Zito’s High Fly and Noble Causeway, 1-2 in this year’s Florida Derby, are going that route. But Zito is optimistic about his contenders’ chances: “Maybe these are the horses that will show people that you can win The Derby off a five-week layoff.” No Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner has smelled the roses. That’s another knock on Wilko. No horse since Proud Clarion in ’67 won The Derby without finishing first in a stakes race. So far, three haven’t: Daddy Joe, Giacomo and Noble Causeway. The last horse to win The Derby after running fifth or worse in his final prep was Iron Liege in ’57. Quite a few also-rans are in this group. Only two horses in the last 47 years that didn’t hit the board won anyway: Sea Hero in ‘93 and Thunder Gulch in ‘95, both fourth in the Blue Grass. At least that gives Zito’s Sun King, fourth in this year’s Blue Grass, a glimmer of hope. And it doesn’t hurt that the trainer has five horses destined to make the Kentucky Derby. When wagering, keep in mind that the post time favorite has lived up to his odds only twice since Spectacular Bid did in ’79: Smarty Jones and Fusaichi Pegasus. However, no favorite scored in the ’90s and ’80s. And from ’80 to ’99 when there were 15 double-digit winners, the average return exceeded $27.