Study Shows MLB Drug Testing Has Reduced Power Numbers Since 2000

Two University of Nebraska-Lincoln historians have released their findings on a study that supports their theory that power numbers in Major League Baseball have dwindled beginning in 2001 due to two causes: 1) the implementation of a league drug-testing program in 2003 and 2) a larger de facto strike zone beginning in 2001.

Ben Radar and Kenneth Winkle's recent work is a follow-up to their 2002 study entitled "Baseball's Great Hitting Barrage of the 1990's", which showed three distinct eras of offense in the last two decades of recent baseball history - low productivity (1990-93), the great offensive barrage (1994-2000) and what is now being called the "new equilibrium" (2000-06).

The data from their most recent study shows a great disparity in offensive numbers between the offensive eras.

The numbers in each category are for 1990-93, 1994-2000, 2001-06

Batting Average: .259, .269, .265
Runs per game: 8.64, 9.92, 9.46
Home runs per game: 1.60, 2.51, 2.17
On base percentage plus slugging percentage: .711, .764, .756

The rise and fall of the slugger physique coincides with the offensive output during the eras. According to the researchers, the average size of a hitter in 1990 was 2.66 pounds per inch of height. That number increased each year reaching a peak of 2.73 pounds per inch of height in the years of 1997, 98 and 99. Interestingly, after MLB started their drug testing policy in 2003 the average hitter today weighs six pounds less than he did in 1998.

It should be no coincidence then that the average MLB slugger was at his heaviest the season where two muscle giants were grabbing national headlines. In 1998 Mark McGuire and Sammy Sosa chased the 37-year old, single season homerun record of Roger Maris. Both became American hero's then, and are today two of the most high-profile players to be accused of steroid use.

Steroid speculation also clouds the current chase Barry Bonds is making toward the all-time homerun record of Hank Aaron. Going by the eras set by the researchers, Bonds' stats fall right in line with their theory.