Thoroughbred Handicapping: Develop Your Own Formula for Betting on Horses

There are many tools to handicap thoroughbreds. The two that rank among the highest on my list are speed and pace figures.

Pure speed handicappers look at the final time. Pace handicappers check the fractions.

Say Horse A last time out closed to win, running six furlongs in 1:12. That would be the speed handicapper’s selection.

Say Horse B last time out in a different race ran the opening quarter-mile a second faster than the speed handicapper’s pick and the next quarter-mile two ticks quicker before fading to fifth, running six furlongs in 1:12 1/5. The pace handicapper would lick his chops, especially if the horse is lone speed in the next race.

I often employ both tools, especially in sprints. But remember handicapping isn’t all speed and pace figures, nor other statistics. The key to success is coming up with the right formula that leads to cashing tickets.

For instance, looks can count, too. While not all horseplayers can pick a winner by eyeballing a field, sometimes a thoroughbred looks so good in the paddock that you decide the animal is worth a bet.

An old friend had an uncanny knack for selecting winners at South Florida tracks just by looking at horses. However, he declined to share his secret of success.

You don’t have to be an excellent judge of horseflesh to spot positive signs of a potential winner. I like a horse that appears perky or bouncy and exhibits aggressive but controllable behavior while warming up. Also a good sign: a fluid transition from a walking gait to a gallop and a well-groomed shiny coat.

Negative signs include excessive kidney sweat between the flanks and, on cool afternoons or evenings, heavy sweating during saddling in the paddock or parading to the post. Another negative: a fractious horse with uncontrollable behavior and a dull coat.

But sometimes a horse just stands out. Several years ago at Gulfstream Park, I nudged a close friend and said: “Wow - look at that. He certainly doesn’t look like a first-time starter.”

“You’re right,” Brad said.