Hurricane Fran churns toward the North Carolina coast on September 4, 1996.
Credit: Laboratory for Atmospheres NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center | ©Laboratory for Atmospheres NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
NOAA, NCSU, and the New CBLAST-Hurricane Program Provide Insight into the 2007 Storm Season
The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season has yet to begin, but forecasters around the country are weighing in with predictions for the upcoming storm season. While an average Atlantic Hurricane season typically spawns around 11 named storms, only six usually become hurricanes, including two major hurricanes. However, as technology advances, academic researchers combined with a new computer model from the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science may give more insight into accurately predicting hurricanes before the beginning of the six-month-long season.On May 22, experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration presented its widely-known and respected hurricane forecast for the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season. As the organization predicts an above-average season with 13-17 names storms total, it also expects 7-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major (at least Category 3) hurricanes. NOAA's 2006 Hurricane season prediction proved to be a bust - an unexpected El Nino rapidly developed, leading to fewer tropical systems than NOAA had originally estimated. Even so, steering currents prevented most of the storms that did form from reaching land in the eastern United States.
According to the News & Observer, Gerry Bell, leading seasonal forecaster at NOAA, stated, "There is some uncertainty this year as to whether or not La Nina will form, and if it does how strong it will be... If La Nina develops, storm activity will likely be in the upper end of the predicted range, or perhaps even higher depending on how strong La Nina becomes. Even if La Nina does not develop, the conditions associated with the ongoing active hurricane era still favor an above-normal season."
In April, North Carolina State University researchers released their own predictions. Estimating 12-14 named storms for this year's hurricane season, NCSU scientists also predict 8-9 may become hurricanes, with 4-5 major hurricanes. Additionally, the group of researchers predicted 1-3 named storms affecting the southeastern United States coast, alone.
- NOAA's 2007 Predictions: 13-17 named storms, 7-10 Hurricanes, 3-5 Major Hurricanes (Category 3+)
- NCSU's 2007 Predictions: 12-14 named storms, 8-9 Hurricanes, 4-5 Major Hurricanes (Category 3+)
- CBLAST analyzes air-sea interactions to better understand hurricane structure and intensity changes.
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