NCAA Basketball Tournament Strategy

Time again for March Madness.  The Big Dance.  Cinderella teams making it to the Elite 8.  The Final Four without all four top seeds.  NCAA basketball tournament fever is in full gear, which means you should already have received your copy of the brackets and are busy guessing which highly ranked teams will be upset and which of the number one seeds will actually make it to the finals.  Which do you pick?  Strategy or blind luck?
   
History suggests that if you want to predict the eventual champion you’ve probably got as good a chance by writing the names of the top eight seeds on pieces of paper and drawing them out of a hat as you do in engaging in sophisticated statistical probability algorithms.   The one thing you definitely don’t want to do is expect a Cinderella team to come out on top in the end.   No team ever seeded below 11th has ever even made it to the Final Four.  Find yourself a Cinderella team to get excited about early on the tournament, but keep them out of the Final Four for sure and, frankly, they probably won’t even make it to the Elite Eight.
   
While it’s really exciting when a lower ranked team makes a run for it, such as Gonzaga used to before they lost their status as an upset special, the plain boring truth is that the eventual winner, along with most of the Final Four, is usually one of the favorites.  Not necessarily a number one seed, mind you, but certainly one of the top three seeds in each division.   While we’re on the subject, you can be sure that at least one top seed is definitely going to make it into the Final Four, and quite likely there will be more than one.  On the other hand, it is going out on a limb to predict a Final Four made up entirely of the number one seeds.   If you enjoy playing the odds, you’ve got to figure that eventually there will be a really exciting Final Four made up of those four number one seeds.  While it would be exciting, don’t hold your breath.   Statistically speaking, the odds say it’s got to happen.  Realistically, there are just way too many variables at work to assume the brainiacs who do the seeding will ever get it that right!
   
Ultimately, all bracket pools revolve around who makes it to the Final Four.  The Cinderella game is fun for those first two rounds, but the name of the game is picking the last four teams right on target.  The basic strategy is this.  Don’t expect all number one seeds to get there.  Don’t hold out for a miracle and expect any low rated seed to get there. The real key to success in picking your Final Four teams comes down to sticking with those teams that have done well all year, that are seeded in the top three, and that come into the tournament on a roll.