Future Prospects for the Chinese Communist Party

In 1976, China was a devastated third-world country backward in its technological capacities and atrocious in its political status quo. During the past quarter-century, it has skyrocketed to a booming economic power with wide-ranging exports, rising standards of living, and increasing military sophistication.

The once monolithic behemoth of a Communist Party had, during the reign of Deng Xiaoping, begun to open up the way for economic liberalization and market stimuli, a trend which has continued to this day. China's economic conditions continue to westernize with such rapidity that the question surfaces as to the Communist Party's relevance in the world of the near future. It is certain that the party line and the party essence have shifted dramatically since 1976, but it is uncertain whether economic, sociopolitical, and military factors will continue to favor its still-looming dominance over gargantuan sectors of Chinese life.

To what in the future can we look as signs of China's direction? Two events will have substantial significance. In 2007, the 17^th Party Congress will meet, initiating Hu Jintao's second term as president. This is expected to be the beginning of the time when Hu will have gained sufficient experience and confidence to implement his individual plans for reform, rather than merely extending the policy of Jiang Zemin, the previous Chinese president.

In 2008, the Summer Olympic Games will be held in Beijing. This proposition has met much international warmth and approval, as it is symbolic of China's growing integration into the dynamics of the world. In order to be respected as an Olympic host, the Chinese government will need to at least show to the world its devotion to the Western values of individual rights, free markets, and religious and political toleration.

As the elite of the Communist Party continues to overwhelmingly dominate the political and military aspects of Chinese life and in economics is faced with a demand for gradual instead of immediate modernization, it becomes clear that the future of the party is not a sudden and violent collapse.