Complacency Vs Inspiration : Why Obama Will Win in 2008?

Complacency vs Inspiration : Why Obama will win

Recent national polls show Sen. Hillary Clinton with a commanding double digit lead over Sen. Barack Obama for the Democratic Party nomination. Political pundits have touted this horse race as an "experience vs change" battle with the "experience" edge going to Clinton and the "change" edge going to Obama. When all is said and done, however, the platform that sends Barack Obama to the White House will be complacency vs inspiration.

I don't mean to exclude the other candidates, but it certainly seems like it is going to come down to a knock-out fight between Clinton and Obama. At this point, I think the rest of the Democratic candidates are simply jockeying for key roles in the next administration.

There are two barometers that have always been used to judge a candidates viability and popularity among voters at this stage of their campaigns, national polls and the amount of money a candidate can raise from their supporters. Since both candidates took in record amounts of money, there is no clear advantage here. Although, the number of supporters that Obama had contributing to his campaign dwarfed the number of contributors to the Clinton campaign proving that his message is being well received by the average American.

As far as polls go, the polling systems have always taken heavy fire and this election will prove no different. Every camp has a way of touting certain numbers in these polls to make their candidate look like either the strongest candidate or the candidate that is somehow on the move. The biggest problem pollsters have always had is, are they getting the opinion of the people that are actually going to take the time to cast a ballot? The lists they use are based on previous campaigns. Land-line polling also eliminates an enormous polling group that have evolved into the cell phone generation and don't even have a land-line. This young and affluent group is the cornerstone of the Obama camp that has never even been tapped by the pollsters. I think a shocker is in the making.