Potential is a Dangerous Word as NBA Draft Approaches

Misunderstanding of Talent Hurts NBA Management

Every year as the NBA Draft approached, the words “potential,” “talent” and “upside” are used by every writer, fan and NBA Draft aficionado; web sites like NBA Draft and Draft Express devote an entire site strictly to prognostications and evaluations of potential draft picks. Essentially, these sites do nothing more than talk about potential, just as the daily sports section describes the action in the previous night’s game.

The funny thing about these predictions and evaluations is the misinterpretation of talent. In basketball circles, coaches, general managers and scouts use the word “talent” as a euphemism to describe quickness, leaping ability, length, wing span and other personal characteristics which great basketball players typically possess. Players who possess these “talents,” but lack the actual basketball credentials to support an opinion that they are a great basketball player, are said to have “potential” or “upside.” So, a seven-foot basketball novice has potential; why else was Sagana Diop a top ten selection?

In a recent NY Times article, researchers from the Expert Performance Movement, led by Anders Ericsson of Florida State asserted that “talent is overrated.” In Marcus Buckingham’s First Break All the Rules, the Gallup Organization’s research suggests that great managers hire for talent, not experience, skills or any other reasons. Why the discrepancy? And, how does the research impact an NBA General Manager?