US Presidential Election 2008 - Can EBay Forecast the Outcome?

Just for a little fun I've set up a couple of searches on eBay to see if the ultimate P2P marketplace in North America can forecast the 2008 vote better than the TV commentators and newspapers.

The idea is that the number of returns on eBay for one party or the other is a measure of their popularity on the auction site. The more popular then presumably the more likely to win.

So, these are live searches already formated for anyone interested. See the number of items returned and that is the eBay derived forecast by viewing the following links. For convenience they will open in a new window.

For the current number of 'Democratic listings' on eBay click here

For the current number of 'Republican listings' on eBay click here

In the interests of fairness for each search I have not included a 'Democratic' listing where it also mentions 'Republican' and vice versa and I am only using listings that feature one of the parties in the auction title.

Could be interesting to see how the numbers change during the campaign and how accurate eBay is in forecasting something as important as the next President of the United States.

The author is a moderator at Pheebay Auction Forums