Dealing with Iran

Strategic Forecasting (STRATFOR), a private geopolitical intelligence company based in Austin, recently published an analysis stating that the United States was attempting "...to make Iran feel isolated, make Iran fear that its foes are on the verge of using military force, make Iran feel like talks with the United States are the least-bad option." And, STRATFOR notes, dialogue between Washington and Tehran is exactly what's needed right now to improve the security situation in Iraq, thereby providing American military forces the opportunity to draw down and refocus their mission to one of training Iraqi security forces instead of actively engaging in combat operations.

The bottom line, and I agree with STRATFOR on this, is that the conflict in Iraq is primarily a struggle for influence between the United States and Iran. We want an Iraq that can serve as a buffer to rising Iranian influence and power in the Middle East and Iran wants a Shiite-friendly government in Baghdad that is unwilling and incapable of threatening its Persian neighbor. That is primarily why Iran is meddling in Iraqi affairs, including training and arming insurgent elements that are attacking, wounding and killing American soldiers. The goal from Tehran's point of view is that Iran must prevent the United States from achieving its objectives in Iraq because the accomplishment of Washington's goals would directly threaten Iranian interests in the region. And that is why President Bush refuses to give up the fight, a move that would allow Iran to fill the power vacuum that will inevitably result from an abrupt American departure from Iraq.