Comparing Some Fantasy Studs for 2008

Fresh off a wire-to-wire victory in the high stakes league, there is still no time like the present to begin thinking about next year. One rule we have is called the "Z" rule. Essentially it allows you to sign to a one-time, one year contract any player whose contract expired this year. The primary focus is to allow one more year of a great bargain. The cost is an extra $10 in salary per year, plus a transaction fee that goes into the prize pool (I think it is $40 or $50). We can resign one player in each league.

The players that fit the bill on my AL team are David Ortiz, C.C. Sabathia and Justin Morneau.

Justin Morneau I acquired Morneau two years ago in a trade for Alex Gordon. That worked out fairly well since it was early enough last year that I got Morneau's surge. His contract is 12L1, meaning that he was auctioned at $2 a few years ago, then had his contract extended after year two for another two years at $5 per year. So, if I "Z" him he becomes $22 next year.

Frankly, of the three he has the lowest salary so that is an argument in his favor right off the bat. Sabathia is $16 and Ortiz is $20, so they would become $26 and $30.

Morneau was definitely a disappointment. He only produced about $19 or $20 in value this year despite his 31 HR and 111 RBI. He hit only .271 with a .343 OBP. He was beset by a few nagging injuries this year. His K/BB ratio was up a tick or two. Overall it appears that his skills stayed pretty constant, but that he was hit with a bit of regression this year.

His second half was disastrous though, with only 11 HR and a .263 BA. August and September were particularly atrocious, with BAs of .221 and .215 with only 3 HR.

David Ortiz There isn't much to say about him in this context, the only real question is how much profit can I expect if I sign him for $30. This year he produced about $32 or $33 in value, depending on format. His BA of .332 though is likely due for a fall, as BaseballHQ has his xBA at a more pedestrian .306. Unlike Morneau, Ortiz roared home this year, with an 80% hit rate in the last week and a 40% hit rate in the last month, batting .393 with a .509 OBP. No wonder why Sox fans think he is clutch.