How an Underdog Wins in the NFL

When you are an underdog, like Buffalo was against Dallas Monday night, certain things need to happen in order to pull off the upset. Playing even means losing when a team is out-matched on a level playing field.

Turnovers. Turnovers are the biggest equalizer in football. Winning the turnover battle will produce more wins than losses. It's a fact. A few errand throws or key fumbles will help an underdog beyond belief. The Bills received 6 turnovers Monday night and should have won the game. They didn't score (except a field goal) on offense. They returned 2 INTs for TDs (which is the ultimate turnover) and had 4 other "free" possessions. You could pinpoint the INT Edwards threw in the final minutes on a possession that would have sealed the game with a chip shot field goal, but six Dallas turnovers before that is plenty for the underdog Bills.

Special Teams. Field position and return TDs are finally getting their due credit in the NFL. Getting a few first downs on a possession to punt it back to the opponents 20-yard line instead of the 40 or 50 is invaluable. Buffalo did that with great punting (Dallas started inside the 20-yard line numerous times, which led to stalling around midfield) and key returns. Return TDs are a bonus to the offense and major swings in momentum. The only negative to a special teams TD is the fatigue of the defense. If the other team has a sustained drive before the return TD, then another 10+ play drive following, the defense will get worn down fast. That could set the defense up for failure the rest of the game.

Time of Possession. Ball control is the way to dictate the action. Watch a Colts game to understand the importance of controlling the clock and frustrating the opponents' offense. 8-minute drives and minimal 3-and-outs will go a long way (no pun intended) towards a David being Goliath. Only the most disciplined teams can stay patient after consistently sitting on the sidelines. They will press and are more likely to turn the ball over.