NASCAR Preview for Jimmie Johnson Speedway

NASCAR visits Lowe's Motor Speedway, virtually considered Jimmie Johnson speedway. My picks this week are also based upon combined stats from Atlanta and Texas, similar 1.5 quad-oval tracks.

This weekend is about as easy a pick as it gets, the only way Johnson loses is when another driver is red hot during the year. Such is the case in 2006 when Kasey Kahne edged him out by 2.1 seconds over the last 34 laps in the Coca-Cola 600 and again by 1.6 seconds over the last 94 laps in the fall race. Kahne has been one of his fiercest competitors since 2004, leading 550 laps, second only to Johnson with 572.

In Johnson's rookie year of 2002, he dominated the Coca-Cola 600 by leading 263 laps, but he overshot his pit while leading and had to settle for a 7th place finish. In 2004 he led 334 of 400 laps en route to his second Lowe's victory. Kahne was a rookie in 2004 and he dominated the fall race leading 207 laps before wiping out. He finished 32nd and Johnson won the race.

Johnson also won both Lowe's races in 2005 and Kahne finished 23rd or worse despite leading 46 laps overall. Kahne then won both races in 2006 leading 292 laps to Johnson's 96.

Johnson won 5 of the 6 quad-oval races from 2003-05 and in the race he didn't win he finished 3rd to Stewart in 2003. I pick him as the winner, but he is at least a lock to finish in the top three since he had 8 straight top 3 finishes at Lowe's before this year's Coca-Cola 600. He had led 83 laps and was leading with 60 to go, before a loose lug nut during caution stops dropped him back to 10th place. In 4 of his 5 wins he has led less than 35 laps. In an eight-race stretch his average finish was 1.5.

He has finished in the top three in 16 of his 32 starts at the 1.5 mile quad-oval tracks. Prior to a 38th place finish in Texas earlier this year he had top eleven finishes in 21 of 22 races, with 7 wins, 5 runner-up finishes and a 3.9 finish average. An incredible streak of podium finishes in 10 of 12 races and 15 of 21. His worst finish was 16th. After finishing 39th in 2001, prior to his rookie year, he has finished in the top ten in all eleven races here since.