Be Careful for What You Wish: Part III

In my nightmare there is a great deal of fear and confusion. If it comes to fruition it will find our nation ripped by faction and extremism from all sides.

The exact event that leads to another series of events and causes my fear to become fact is as yet undetermined. It could be a massive terror attack with the use of WMD of some sort, although this seems less likely as our nation could recover from almost any single incident, unless it were an extremely effective Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) attack, or an equally effective biological agent or pathogen.

In my opinion it will be more along the lines of geopolitical wrangling and the embargo of energy in a desperate gambit by those who hold the strings. Russia going through with their vague threat to close energy pipelines could be the cocking of the hammer. Middle Eastern despots could close the Strait of Hormuz. A third party massive terror attack could cripple the movement of oil, thus driving the price to unimagined heights, and sparking all that follows.

Suffice to say there are a whole host of potential catalysts and I believe we will indeed be surprised by how little it will actually take to cause my nightmare to become everyone's reality.

The position for my assumptions is based on the knowledge that the whole of Western society, and especially democracy, balances precariously on the head of a pin. Our modern sensibilities are one of our worst enemies. If the right catalyst sparks the right fuel we may well find modern Western sensibilities turned topsy-turvy, leaving hundreds of millions of persons suddenly living as if it were the middle of the 18th century.

Have you ever heard of the concept of Educated Incapacity (EI)? Herman Kahn, the Cold War theorist, a futurist for the Rand Corporation and co-founder of the Hudson Institute, ascribed to this theory as applied to societies and individuals. My wife worked as one of Herman's assistants in the 1980's. We have talked many times about many of the insights Herman passed along to her, and EI, as I will define it here, was a major topic in Herman's mind.