C.C. Sabathia and a Key Auction Principle for Fantasy Leaguers

Somehow I forgot to include a discussion about Bobby Jenks in my prior post about the "Z" rule. Jenks clearly had a career year. Generally he has had poor control with walk rates of 3.5 and 4.0 in 2005 and 2006. He was successful by having huge strikeout rates of 11.5 and 10.3. This year was a reversal. He only struck out 7.8 batters per nine innings and walked 1.8. His 2.77 ERA and 0.89 WHIP are tasty also. Plus he has a $10 salary, so if I "Z" him he becomes a $20.

No matter what one may think of Jenks, this is good value but not tremendous value. He may very well reproduce a $30 season next year, earning me a profit of $10, and he will be a great trade chit no matter what happens. In tough, competitive keeper leagues one prime strategy in dealing with closers is to speculate and try to hit a home run. The goal is to spend $5 or less, earning a profit of $15-20 and then using that money on more dependable offensive players.

Additionally, you can usually trade for closers during the season. So the issue becomes whether you can spend this money more efficiently in the auction, and often you may be able to.

It seems like this should be a "no-brainer" decision, but there are a multitude of factors to consider, not just whether I will turn a profit with Jenks. I haven't made a decision yet of course. As always, when making a decision one of the most important considerations is what your co-owners will do.

The key principle of auction theory referenced above is that every time I can make my opponents make an error I gain points, and if I make an error I gain. This is sort of the fantasy baseball analog to the Fundamental Theorem of Poker, though in fantasy baseball it only really sees its full flower in auction dynamics.

During the season this is not necessarily the rule to follow. Unlike the FTOP you can't just make this theorem the fundamental principle of your entire strategy. While you do, in fact, gain points every time your opponents err, you can't do much to induce these errors aside from propaganda. In auctions however, and in any zero-sum endeavor, it is vitally important.