Organized Crime Threatens Guatemala's Future

The Power and Interest Report (PINR), an independent organization that provides conflict analysis services, has published a new paper on the dangers posed to Guatemala's central government by organized crime. The paper, drafted by PINR's Samuel Logan, is titled "Governance in Guatemala Increasingly Threatened by Organized Crime" and is available of the PINR's web site.

According to the paper, the winner of upcoming elections in Guatemala is irrelevant because the governmental process is plagued by problems such as drug trafficking, organized crime, corruption, and extra-judicial murders. A primary candidate in the race for leadership of the country, Otto Perez Molina, is a strong advocate of tighter security in Guatemala, a policy preference that PINR says will likely result in conflict between criminal elements and Guatemalan government forces. Such a policy, if enacted, would focus extensively on run-of-the-mill criminals, allowing organized crime groups to escape government scrutiny.

Perez-Molina's main adversary in the election is Alvaro Colom, a man whom PINR says wants to implement progressive reform measures that will facilitate the growth of Guatemala's economy. Strong economic growth, Colom believes, will improve the quality of life in Guatemala through decreased poverty levels and fewer instances of violence.

The paper argues that organized crime groups are prepared to deal with either candidate, in the form of political pressure on Colom or by seizing opportunities presented by Perez-Molina's targeting of street gangs. No matter who is elected, PINR says, organized crime elements will fare well and Guatemala's situation will only grow more dire.