PINR Analyzes Pakistan Crisis

The Power and Interest Report (PINR), an independent organization that provides conflict analysis services, has published a new intelligence brief on the continuing crisis in Pakistan. The brief, titled "Musharraf's Rule Destabilizing Pakistan," was published November 5 and is available on the PINR web site.

According to the brief, Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf is the only option available to the United States in Pakistan right now. The problem, PINR notes, is that President Musharraf has taken a series of actions recently that threaten stability not only in Pakistan, but in the region as well. From the firing of the country's Chief Justice of the Pakistani Supreme Court, to his handling of nationwide protests and his dealings with Islamic radicals, the brief says that President Musharaff has isolated a large portion of the Pakistani population, resulting in a weakening of his hold on power.

In addition to the firing of the Supreme Court's Chief Justice, Musharraf misjudged public reaction to his use of force against radical Islamists in the infamous Red Mosque siege, and his dealings with tribal elements in the Pakistani regions bordering neighboring Afghanistan. Musharaff also came under fire for the recent assassination attempt on Benazir Bhutto, the former prime minister of Pakistan, when she returned to Pakistan after years of self-imposed exile. Bhutto's return was marred by a bombing attack that killed scores of innocent bystanders watching her motorcade.

According to PINR, the recurrence of questionable events under Musharraf reign raises doubts about his ability to preserve order and stability in Pakistan. With his latest move, involving the suspension of Pakistan's constitution and accompanying decree of emergency authority, Musharraf further distanced himself from the majority of the Pakistani population. His only remaining base of support, the brief says, is the military, which he heads.