Risky Business: How Do People Evaluate the Risk of Potentially Hazardous Situations?

Research funded by the National Science Foundation proffers a new theory explaining the emotional element associated with human risk taking behavior.

October 2007 will be remembered for its numerous Southern California wildfires, which at one time numbered as many as 44 fires. Why do people repeatedly ignore risks and adopt potentially hazardous behavior? This is the question that propelled recent research into risk behavior that was headed by Jacqueline Meszaros who is the program director for Decision, Risk and Management Sciences at the National Science Foundation (NSF).

Meszaros's research found that emotions play a critical role in risk taking and risk management behaviors and choices. The researchers found that people do not evaluate a potential risk solely on facts and information. On the contrary, evaluations of risk are closely linked to the individual's perception of emotional benefit attendant on the situation that holds the potential hazard. Evaluations of potential hazards are made based equally on perceived risk and perceived benefit to be derived from the potentially hazardous situation.

This theory that evaluation of hazardous situations are based equally on risk danger and emotional benefit is illustrated, say researchers, by the recent California wildfires. There were significant studies done on the risk of wildfires occurring in Southern California, therefore prior to the October fires there was much available information on the risks. The researchers point to one study in particular although this particular study occurred after the fact: people already had invested in land and homes in the fire risk zones.