Poll Shows Changes in New Hampshire Primaries

The latest Marist poll on the primary election in New Hampshire show New York Senator Hillary Clinton and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney lead their respective parties. There is one thing to remember about the New Hampshire primary and that is the fact that independents are allowed to vote in one or the other and they can make a big difference.

With the Democrats, Clinton is still in the lead, by not by as much in the last poll when she led the second place candidate, Illinois Senator Barack Obama by a margin of 21%. Right now her lead is 11%. Clinton gets 36% while Obama gets 25%. In third place is former Senator John Edwards with 14%. All of the rest of the field, Governor Bill Richardson, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, Senator Joe Biden, Senator Chris Dodd, and former Senator Mike Gravel do not have over 10% support.

One of the groups where Clinton has lost a lot of support
with men over the age of 45. In the last poll, Clinton led the next two contenders, Obama and Edwards by20%. Right now it is just about a three-way tie. Another big change is in the first time voters. Last month Clinton led in this group by 19% and now Obama leads by 13%. In New Hampshire, close to 20% of the voters are first timers.

However, when it comes to voter loyalty, Clinton's supporters are much more solidly behind their candidate. All in all, 56% of those who say they are likely to vote in the Democratic primary say they strongly support a candidate. Of those who support Clinton, 64% say they are strongly committed to her. With Obama, 49% of those who choose him say they are strongly supportive. And with Edwards, it is 46%.

When they asked the respondents to pick a second choice who they would vote for if for some reason their first choice was no longer in the race by primary time. In this instance, 22% pick Edwards as their second choice, 21% pick Clinton and 19% pick Obama.

The Democratic voters what the next President to be someone who can bring about change, 25%, be a strong leader, 22%, be someone who is close to them on the issues, 21% and be someone who shares their values, 20%.