Political Analysis: Explaining the Ron Paul Phenomenon

Ron Paul is a 10-term Republican Congressman from Texas who is running for President at a time when Republican's aren't very popular and a member of the House of Representative hasn't won a party nomination, let alone a general election, in over 100 years. In fact, Rep. Paul isn't very popular among members of his own party. But despite everything that is against him, Paul has turned his insurgent candidacy into a fully fledged phenomenon that is sweeping the country.

In the beginning, passersby may have noticed "Ron Paul" spam in their MySpace accounts, or "Ron Paul Revolution" signs displayed in very unusual and conspicuous places around town. The politically savvy may even have watch him stumble and teeter in the first Republican debates, where he took on Giuliani and received harsh criticism from fellow Republicans as well as the media.

Today, the Ron Paul Revolution is in full steam. The campaign shocked the political world when it announced that it had raised over $5 million in campaign contributions in the third quarter; more that former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, and nearly as much as Arizona Senator John McCain.

Jaws dropped even further with last week's announcement that Paul's campaign raised an astonishing $4.2 million in just a single day, consisting of mostly small donations from 36,000 supports, mostly made over the Internet.

There seems to be no stopping the trend either. The following week the campaign took in an addition $1 million from 12,000 donors, half of which were new contributors. This leaves Paul very close to his fourth quarter goal of $12 million. An estimated $8.2 million has already been raised.

Despite shattering single-day fund raising records, Paul's movement hasn't translated into measurable support, at least not yet. The most recent Quinnipiac University poll has Paul polling at 1%, behind fell members of the US House of Representatives, Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo. Paul isn't fairing must better in early states either; a New Hampshire Institute of Politics/Saint Anselm College poll showed him at just 7% in the Granite State.

Who is Ron Paul's "base"?