The United States-China Hotline and the Taiwan Status Quo

The Power and Interest Report (PINR), an independent organization that provides conflict analysis services in the context of international relations, has published a new intelligence brief on the recently announced military hotline between the United States and China. The brief was published November 15 and is available on the PINR web site.

In "The Political Significance of the U.S.-China Military Hotline," PINR says that the recent agreement between the United States and China on the development of a military hotline will probably be viewed as a stabilizing element with regard to relations between the two countries.

According to the brief, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates reiterated the position of the U.S. government as one of opposition to unilateral changes to the ongoing China-Taiwan dispute. The U.S. government has followed a "One China" policy that recognizes Taiwan as part of China, but rejects Chinese efforts to reunite with the island by forceful means. A recent source of tension has been Taiwan's push for membership in the United Nations, a move that has drawn warnings from the United States. Additionally, the brief says, the United States has taken issue with Taiwan's development of long-range missiles and the island's failure to buy U.S. weapons systems that could enhance Taiwan's defenses against external attack.

And, PINR says, Taiwan understands both the U.S. position with reference to China, and the fact that the U.S. government places great importance on U.S.-Chinese relations, a fact that was underscored by the agreement to establish a military hotline.

According to the brief, the Chinese government has recently backed off from its threatening posture toward Taiwan, proposing dialogue with the island to work toward improving Taiwan-China relations. The Chinese government's move was praised by the U.S. government. Continued pushes by Taiwan, though, could provoke China and force the Chinese government's hand to back up its position that Taiwan is rightfully part of China proper.