Russian-North Korean Relations and the Nuclear Issue

The International Crisis Group, an independent, nonprofit, nongovernmental organization that works to resolve and prevent violent conflict around the world, has published a new briefing on state to state interaction between Kim Jong Il's North Korea and Vladimir Putin's Russia. The brief, published December 4 and available for download on the Crisis Group's web site, is titled "North Korea-Russia Relations: A Strained Friendship."

According to the Crisis Group, the Russian government believes it is in its national interest to keep North Korea nuclear free. However, the Crisis Group brief notes, Russia will probably minimize its efforts in the ongoing six party talks in which the United States, Russia, North Korea, the People's Republic of China, Japan, and South Korea are using as a means for negotiating a cessation of North Korean nuclear activities.

In its new brief, the Crisis Group examines state to state relations between North Korea and Russia and the impact of their interaction on North Korean nuclear pursuits and security both in the region and around the world. The Crisis Group says that the two nations have unrealistic expectations of one another and are more often than not dissatisfied with their interaction. Still, the brief reports, the two countries have common national objectives that have thus far allowed them to avoid a complete split.

Daniel Pinkston, a senior analyst for the Crisis Group, says, "Since Putin visited Pyongyang in 2000, diplomatic initiatives have come undone, and economic projects have faltered. Russia is arguably the least effective participant in the six-party nuclear talks."

The Crisis Group says that although Russian influence in Asia has increased since the last decade, Putin's government still does not wield enough power to effect change in the Koreas. And while Russia would like to see a nuclear free North Korea, the brief says, Moscow is more concerned with its position relative to the other participants in the six-party talks.