NFL Quarterback Drafts More Bust Than Boom

In the 1983 NFL draft, six quarterbacks went in the first round. All of them became starters for their respective teams. Three of them--John Elway, Jim Kelly, and Dan Marino--are in the Hall of Fame after lengthy and productive careers. This marks 1983 as one of the best quarterback drafts of all time. How have first-rounders fared since? Not so well.

Taking a look at quarterbacks drafted over a 20-year period from 1985-2005, the return on first-round investments is underwhelming. NFL teams drafted 242 quarterbacks overall during that time; of those, 43 were first-round selections. The average career for a first round pick through last year (2006) was 6.5 years and 70.3 games played with a 72.9 passer rating. The average league-wide passer rating was 77.3 during that same timeframe. Only 15 of those first-round quarterbacks (34.8%) have a career passer rating better than that mark. Only four of them have led the league in passer rating; only one of them--Peyton Manning--has done it more than once. Meanwhile, 12 have retired with fewer than 30 game appearances, and 11 have retired after five seasons or less.

It's said that championships are the true measure of greatness. Among this group, only nine have appeared in Super Bowls, with six wins to show for it. Three of those wins are from the only current Hall of Famer among that group, Troy Aikman. Which means that sixth-round pick Tom Brady has as many Super Bowl victories (3) in the past five years as 42 first-rounders not named Aikman have achieved in the past 20.

The 1990s was not the decade to pick a first-rounder, as the average passer rating among that group is 68.4, thanks to some spectacular flops including Todd Marinovich, Ryan Leaf, and Jim Druckenmiller. Out of the 20 quarterbacks selected in the first round during the 90s, only four entered the 2007 season as active players with career ratings over 80: Peyton Manning (94.4), Daunte Culpepper (90.8), Donovan McNabb (85.2), and Steve McNair (83.2). In contrast, nine of those 20 quarterbacks retired after playing in fewer than 35 games, with an average passer rating of 55.7 among them.