Clinton, Kosovo, and the Next Commander in Chief

It appears increasingly likely that a unilateral declaration of independence will soon be made by Kosovo, perhaps as early as December 10. By that date, negotiators from the European Union, the United States, and Russia will have submitted a report to the United Nations on efforts to reach a consensus on Kosovo's future status.

Given Serb and Russian opposition to an independent Kosovo, it is unlikely that an agreement has been reached, leaving the international community in a bind if tensions flare up in the wake of a Kosovar declaration. Historically part of Serbia, Kosovo is largely inhabited by Albanians that make up more than 90 percent of the population. Serbs account for only 5 percent of the populace, but the Serbian government, with backing from Moscow, has indicated that it has no intention of letting Kosovo go.

A unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo is a real problem. Does NATO, which currently has around 16,000 troops deployed to Kosovo as peacekeepers, defend the Kosovo declaration with force and risk war with Serbia and confrontation with Russia? Or does NATO suppress the Kosovar Albanians that Europe and the west have supported since taking action against Serbia nearly a decade ago? If Kosovo declares independence based on an ethnic majority trapped within artificial borders, does it create a precedent for declarations of independence by other ethnic majorities in other regions, like maybe the Basque separatists in Spain or a multitude of places in the states of the former Soviet Union?

Despite the potential for another Balkan crisis, which could include a new war with Serbia, resulting from Kosovo's expected declaration of independence, Senator and presidential hopeful Hillary Rodham Clinton said in a statement on her Senate web site last week, "If the government in Pristina decides for independence, I would strongly support prompt U.S. recognition, and I would urge the European Union to do the same."