Raul Castro Represents More of the Same for Cuba

A flurry of activity has erupted in the wake of Cuban leader Fidel's Castro's recent, though most likely temporary, surrender of power for the first time in nearly half a century of dictatorial rule. The Cuban-American population in Miami is celebrating in the streets, the White House has developed contingency plans in case the Cuban regime collapses, and Congress is readying legislation to assist with a transition to a democratic form of government. Even the U.S. Coast Guard is prepared to interdict any potential flood of refugees fleeing the island. But the idealistic hope that Cuba will soon be liberated from its Communist stranglehold is based more on fantasy than grounded in reality.

While it is normal to long for an orderly transition from a brutal autocracy to a free society in the event of the Cuban President's demise, it is both sensible and practical to realize that the more likely scenario involves increased repression as the government cracks down on any political dissension, real or potential, while the country adjusts to life after Fidel.

As he prepared to undergo surgery for "sustained" intestinal bleeding, a condition the Cuban government says was brought on by stress resulting from a heavy work schedule, Fidel transferred the Presidency and the leadership of Cuba's Communist Party to his brother, Raul, the 75-year old Cuban Defense Minister who also serves as first vice president of the Council of State, Cuba's main governing establishment.

While Fidel is known the world over for his ironclad rule of Cuba, Raul Castro is reported to be even more radical and less tolerant of political opposition. Raul, who has taken a more public role recently, though not since the transfer of power, is a known political hardliner who joined a Communist youth group before the 1959 revolution that placed his brother at the helm of the island nation.