Does Ron Paul Have a Chance?

If you are stuck outside in 10 inches of snow, and you are peeking in the windows of a beautiful house full of well-dressed people, and those people tell you that the only way they'll let you in is if you vow to adhere to their beliefs and ideals, the last thing you want to do is throw a rock through their patio door.

Ron Paul is that guy, shivering on the doorstep, looking in at the power brokers in the Republican Party, holding a stone in his hand, ready to give it a heave.

He certainly is not a distinguished member of the Republican establishment. He has always been on the outside of that block party looking in. Sure, he has some impressive GOP credentials. He was one of the first to support Ronald Reagan for President, even doing so in 1976 when Reagan lost out to Gerald Ford in the primary. He has spent 17 years in the House of Representatives as a champion of reduced government. He is one of a very, very small number of Congressmen who can honestly say that he has never voted for a tax increase in any form. And he has long been an outspoken opponent of abortion.

However, that stone-throwing habit of his has been around for a while, and he has never been afraid to hit members of his own party. He has often slammed Republican heroes Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush for their spending and large deficits. He has criticized those two presidents for using military force without a declaration of war from Congress as spelled out in the Constitution. He is the only Republican candidate for president in 2008 that voted against the Iraq War Resolution in 2002.

These things make him an outsider, or a maverick, in political terms. And when it comes to the Presidency, outsiders simply do not win.

Think back to the last time we actually had a number of candidates vying for the Republican nomination in a Presidential election. In 2000, John McCain was the outsider, the maverick, running against the establishment. He drew heavy support from moderates and independents, and was lauded for his honesty and courage to stand up for his beliefs. In short, he was Ron Paul before there was Ron Paul.