Who Will Win the Iowa Caucuses?

Who will win the Iowa caucuses? Tonight's the night! It's now-or-never time for the Democratic and Republican candidates for the Presidency, as they face-off against each other in the Iowa caucuses on January 3^rd, tonight, doors opening at 6:30 p.m. (CDT).

As someone who has followed the candidates around the state, met most of them, had photo ops with at least 4 of them (see Associated Content), I'm going to venture far out on the proverbial limb and "pick" the winners AND tell you why I feel this way.

The fact that NO ONE feels secure in picking this year should tell you something about how foolhardy this act may be, but here are my picks and why I am picking the race this way.

First, for the Democrats: Obama will win but Edwards will be an extremely close second, so close that it could (literally) go either way. Obama is banking on a high turnout from young voters, first-time voters, disaffected Republicans and Independents. Information from the Center for Information & Research in Civic Learning & Engagement says there will be a high turnout (the weather is good) and that there will be record numbers of Independents and Republicans voting Democratic in the caucuses.

The Des Moines Register has predicted that as many as 72% of voters may be first-time voters this year. Do you see a trend here? And, if you do, who(m) would it favor?

A high voter turn-out of voters under 34 for Obama will help him capture first place tonight. Many of those voters will be Independents who have registered as Democrats in protest of the current Administration, and there will be disaffected Republican voters present in the Democratic ranks, as well. After all, look at the choices that their own party has put before them. Where, in years of yore and in the last caucuses, in particular, the average voter's age was over 50, tonight the torch will be passed to a new generation.