New Hampshire - Election 2008 (An Analysis of Polls)

The New Hampshire Primaries are Tuesday January 8^th, 2008. Polls for New Hampshire show an interesting story unfolding. But where it goes when the voters get to the booths will be anyone's guess.

The Republicans
John McCain began his allure during the same time start out at 25%. He had a steady decline until September, where he hit bottom of under 13%. But he began bouncing back up and now has a strong poll showing of 31%, putting him in the lead for now. It would seem that the September 13^th change in campaign tactics were well advised. He had been a supporter of the war, feeling the Iraqi people would welcome the US troops as liberators, much as the Italians did in WWII. Then, after touring the war zone in 2003, he realized the war was being run poorly. In September, he seemed to change his message about the war to one of support for the troop surge while criticizing the commander in chief for the mess, something his fellow Republicans were not want to do.

Mitt Romney started out in February of last year at distant third (relatively speaking) at about 18%. He's had a steady climb in the polls (with a small dip in October) until he now commands a strong second at nearly 28%. The dip in October might be due to his slip in calling Osama bin Laden, Obama. Or it could have something to do with his bowing out of events in South Carolina due to an "illness", then going to meetings and a big Mormon fundraising event in Utah. No matter how you slice it, Romney is in it for the long run. Unless something happens between now and Super Tuesday on February 5^th, the former Massachusetts governor will be a force to watch.

Mike Huckabee entered the polls in late August at just over 3%, showed a slow but steady rise until he now commands third place on the polls with 11.5%. Iowa was good for the former Governor, but it remains to be seen if he can repeat in subsequent primaries. His strong showing in Iowa may be due to his Baptist roots, where a large portion of Evangelicals cast their ballots for him rather than Mitt Romney.