New Hampshire Primary Analysis

New Hampshire, New Hampshire, New Hampshire -- we hardly knew ye.

Let me start with the Democrats.

I'm a pretty avid follower of the news, particularly when it comes to presidential elections. MSNBC, CNN, The New York Times, the Politics1.com blog and pollster.com all attract a fair share of my daily attention. In addition to my love for the news, I have a self-anointed status as a "couch potato political pundit" (meaning, I just watch a lot of political news magazines). So, I figured that I -- along with Chris Matthews, Bill Schneider and all the rest -- knew what was coming on Tuesday night in New Hampshire: a Barack Obama blowout. Gallup, Zogby, Rasmussen, you name it: they were all predicting the same thing, and that was a stunning, crushing defeat for the Woman-Who-Would-Be-President, Senator Hillary Clinton of New York.

Funny, then, that by the time midnight rolled around on the night of January 8, 2008, I could have sworn I had just watched a Clinton victory speech in the Granite State.

Huh?

In one of the most shocking upsets in recent (and perhaps even all-time) American political history, Clinton defeated Obama in the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary. A week ago, this would not have been news. But given Obama's big win in the Iowa caucus just last Thursday, coupled with the barrage of aforementioned weekend polls that showed him surging past Clinton at blistering speed, this was a big, big story. Left for dead by the media -- heck, even by her own campaign -- Hillary can now join her husband as the Clinton family's second Comeback Kid.

What does this mean for the Democrats? Well, it's a race! A two-person race, at least. Sorry, John Edwards, but even with poor New Hampshire organization, 17% is not enough to warrant you a serious contender for the Democratic nomination at this point (somewhere, Joe Trippi is shouting).