Analysis: Understanding the New Hampshire Primary Results

The 2008 New Hampshire primary is now part of history. This year's primary arguably was the most unusual since 1968, when the New Hampshire primary assumed its exalted position as the single-most important election leading up to the November Presidential election itself when Senator Eugene McCarthy challenged Lyndon Baines Johnson. McCarthy finished a strong second to the sitting president, and knocked LBJ out of the race.

The New Hampshire primary was once unrivalled as the kickoff of the Presidential nominating season, but no more: Iowa has stolen the spotlight from the Granite State with its caucuses. The presidential candidates now spend more time in Iowa than in New Hampshire, whose primary comes a scant five days after the caucuses. Potential contenders for the Presidency still begin their first visits to the Granite State a full year before the primary, but their days in-state have been reduced as Iowa, as the real starting point of the race, has become more important, particularly in the new millennium. John Edwards spent four years building an organization in Iowa for 2008, and it paid off with 30% of the vote. He only garnered 17% of the vote in New Hampshire.

The lead-up to election day in the New Hampshire primary once was more leisurely, with the contest occurring in April and then March, more spring than winter. The visits to New Hampshire of the contenders would become more numerous as election day neared, and that was the thing that was missing this time: The multiple visits, and the extra economic activity they generated.