War on Terror Just Getting Started

In the introduction to Strategic Forecasting's 2008 forecast, Dr. George Friedman writes that "...the U.S.-jihadist war is entering its final phase," and that "...the destruction of al Qaeda's strategic capabilities now allows the United States to shift its posture...and enables Washington to begin drawing down its Middle Eastern forces." He could not be more wrong.

To begin, we are not fighting a "jihadist" war. We are fighting a global war on terrorism that involves the use of all the elements of national power: diplomatic, informational, military, and economic. Our fight is not just with the "jihadists" in the Middle East, but with those individuals worldwide that resort to terrorist tactics in pursuit of their political objectives. They could be Basque separatists in Spain, Taliban elements in Pakistan, or the Irish Republican Army in the United Kingdom. They could be Chechens operating from Georgian territory, Islamic fighters in the Philippines, or Kurdish rebels attacking Turkey from safe havens in northern Iraq. The notion that the U.S. effort against perpetrators of terrorism is entering its final phase is misguided, as is the belief that American forces will begin significantly drawing down troop levels in the Middle East.

The United States has already begun to redeploy some forces from Iraq, with one brigade that is not being replaced already at home and four more scheduled to come home without replacement by the summer. But the reality is that we will maintain far in excess of 100,000 troops there for the foreseeable future. The security gains achieved with additional troops and changed tactics could easily be lost if too many American forces are withdrawn before Iraqi forces are capable of stepping in for them. Political accommodation has begun at the local level in Iraq, but an outside arbiter of peace will be required for years to ensure that the country does not slide back toward civil war.