Oscar Predictions

The theory that the Golden Globes influence the Academy of Motion Picture Sciences final Best Picture and other awards choices may be waning. Diverging stats and rearranged calendars may be changing this oft-quoted trend. Oscar voters were due to have dropped off their ballots the day before the Golden Globe winners were announced, and thus could not have swayed final Academy Awards picks. But other awards in the Hollywood firmament are affecting the final choices for what movies will received Hollywood's ultimate accolade.

1. BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA

Word on the street is that Atonement and Sweeney Todd will be given short shrift by Academy voters due to the emphasis later pictures attracted. Juno could be an upset, but films like American Gangster and There Will be Blood, not to mention "No Country For Old Men", have much more intense character tropes and sweeping storylines and screenplays. Michael Clayton has spent a fortune in the trades advertising its consideration, but may get shut out due to an overly wide field. Many Hollywood pundits are analyzing that "Into the Wild", Sean Penn's directorial project, is being needlessly ignored. But the Schnabel force of "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"may trump all. This is the craziest race in years, and anybody who says any film is a lock is demented.

Most Overhyped Proposed Entry: Juno

2. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE

Cate Blanchett is usually a lock but Julie Christie is "of the body", a match both to the heyday of many Oscar voters but sympathetic to her movie subject material. "Away From Her" tells of a Alzheimer's patient failing in love with another man at the hospital while her helpless and frustrated husband looks on. The big competition in this category is Marion Cotillard from the Edith Piaf "La Vie En Rose" biography film. But few people may sit through it or relate to the subject matter. Julia Roberts is dead on arrival in "Charlie Wilson's War", which might have benefited from being held from release until next awards season. Jodie and Angelina may pale from their projects since the buzz for them is simply nonexistent.