South Carolina Primary Predictions

With the South Carolina primaries coming up soon, people around the country want to know - how will the red states vote? South Carolina marks the first "Southern" state to pick a primary candidate. As of January 16, the polls are pretty clear.

CNN's polls indicate Barack Obama has the lead at 44% for the Democratic primary, with Hillary Clinton close behind at 38%. John Edwards is not giving up his fight easily and trails third at a meager 9%.

John McCain has the Republican lead at 33%, with Mike Huckabee at 23%, and Mitt Romney at 20%. The polls were taken the day after the Michigan primary, so there is a chance that Mitt Romney's voter percentage may raise, but will it be enough to pass McCain?

So far there is no clear candidate for either party. Each state has been passing the title of victor back and forth. In the Republicans the top three leaders have each passed around the crown and Obama and Clinton have been passing theirs back and forth as well.

It seems in this instance, Obama will likely emerge victor in this state. Nearly a third of South Carolina's racial demographics is black and Obama has 58% of the black Democratic vote and Clinton only has 31%. South Carolina is the first state in this election to have a large black population. As much as we like to think race has nothing to do with it, the polls speak loudly. Obama's campaign speaks loudly to many residents of this state, where the median household income is only $37,000.

The Republican prediction is a little tougher. McCain looks to be the clear winner right now, but it is too early to predict what Romney win in Michigan will does to this primary. It's tough to say if he can make up the 13% difference, but it's doubtful.

As far as issues go, a vast majority of registered voters say that McCain, Obama, and Clinton agree with them on issues that are important to them, giving them popular vote nation wide. The biggest question is with the Democratic party will we have our first black presidential nominee or our first woman presidential nominee. Either way it will be history in the making because Democratic voters are much more enthusiastic this year than Republican voters.