South Carolina: McCain Wins, Thompson Doesn't Drop Out

Looking Ahead to Florida

The two big stories that have developed out of yesterday's South Carolina Primary results are John McCain and Fred Thompson.

As for McCain, he nearly tripled the total number of delegates that will represent him at the Democratic national congress by winning the South Carolina Republican primary and picking up a few extra delegates with his
South Carolina: McCain Wins, Thompson Doesn't Drop Out
 third place finish in the Nevada caucus. However, according to Yahoo News McCain's 36 delegates still trail behind Huckabee's 40 and Romney's 59.

But then again, both Huckabee's and Romney's numbers may be slightly inflated. After all, Romney's wins in Nevada and Wyoming may be in part a result of the heavy support he's received from Mormons in those two states, a phenomenon that he may be hard pressed to repeat in the larger states. Similarly, most of Huckabee's forty delegates are from Iowa, where his victory may be partially attributed to support from evangelicals.

And if current Florida poll averages can be trusted, the momentum from McCain's win today might be enough to push him into a comfortable first when Floridians vote on the 29th. According to CNN and AP McCain seems to be leading in the state with both Huckabee and Romney trailing by at least five points. But McCain's biggest opponent might actually be Rudi Giuliani, who despite having performed poorly so far, is still holding up in Florida polls. And considering that Florida commands 57 delegates, a win there for virtually any of the front runners could be enough to catapult them into the lead on Super Tuesday.

But as for Fred Thompson, many were expecting him to drop out once his very low third in the today's South Carolina primary became definite. However, as reported by the Washington Post, Thompson says that he plans to stay in the race regardless of the fact that he only has five delegates so far and is currently coming in fifth in Florida polls.

But Thompson aside, it's still anyone's race, and we probably will not be able to make any truly solid predictions concerning the nomination until after heavyweights like California and New York weigh in on Super Tuesday.

 
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I disagree! I think Huckabee is taking votes away from Thompson. Huckabee is starting to fizzle and will continue. He does not have the broad base (among other things) that Thompson has. Thompson's mother is gravely ill. That is the reason he went to see her and is preoccupied right now. So far we've had only OPEN primaries. Once we start getting into Republican-only votes we will see the following: 1 - Huckabee will fade because he's a one-trick pony. 2 - McCain will have the curtain pulled back and his "maverick" policies revealed. 3 - Rudy is one-and-done in Florida. 4 - Romney cannot out-conservative Fred. 5 - Thompson is the clear winner

Posted on 01/21/2008 at 6:01:00 PM

Thompson is helping McCain by staying in the race, because he takes votes away from Huckabee. I dont know if it'll be enough to give the nomination to McCain, his age is really an issue with people. Reagan was 69 when he won the election, but he looked more youthful and energetic. McCain looks his age, but has more energy than Reagan really had.

Posted on 01/21/2008 at 10:01:07 AM

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