Us Sports Analysts During the NFL Playoffs and the Super Bowl
We're Wrong. And?
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Looking back at these playoffs, and during the San Diego/New England game, I've come to realize a few things about people who make predictions and analyze games (like myself, albeit not very well.) #1: We always miss something. That Cadillac commercial with the woman who claims her car turns her on is overlooked by many as being freaky. Or the weather not factoring into a northern football game in January.
Whether it's LT not playing but Rivers producing, to aggressive defense being the key to victory in the divisional round games, 99% of us will miss the call on the deciding factor to a game. Luck has plenty to do with being right.
#2: Bias is a factor. Picks with too much bias are the equivalent of walking up to the hottest girl you've ever seen and then saying "I'll be your Burger King if you be my Dairy Queen. You treat me right and you can have it your way."
It just isn't going to work.
I dislike the Patriots, simply because they're doing so well. I like thinking there are some records that cannot be broken, that were one-time shots. So I picked Jacksonville. You see what happened.
The fact is, although we won't admit it (I was perfectly sane on those picks!), there is something determining our picks. Whether it's a bias towards numbers or towards favorites, it is the underlying current that directs what we think will happen.
#3: We're going to pick 'em anyway! Hey, most of us know we're probably wrong. Even though the numbers, the trends, the vibes coming from each locker room supports what we've said, and our lesser-knowledged friends consider us gurus when it comes to sports, we realize the chances of us being right are about the same as Roger Clemens proving his innocence, Pacman Jones staying out of a strip club, and George Bush proving his IQ is above 80.
However, part of the fun is testing ourselves against the experts and each other! If you happen to nail one right on the head, the all-important bragging rights are ours for the taking! And we all know that's the major part of sports, right?
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Mo Morrissey
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Posted on 01/25/2008 at 11:01:56 AM
Ryan Lester
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Posted on 01/25/2008 at 11:01:24 AM