Can John Edwards Win the Democratic Party Nomination?

Polls are showing Senator Barack Obama ahead of Senator Hillary Clinton, depending upon which one you look at, by as many as 9 or 10 to 16 percentage points in South Carolina just hours before the polls open in that state's Democratic Primary. But the polls have been wrong before. They were wrong in Iowa. They were really wrong in New Hampshire.

The polls put Barack Obama well ahead. Why, when just a few short months ago, Hillary Clinton led the polls? Simply because Obama has gained the confidence of the African-American electorate, something he did not have a few months ago. And some feel confident he could become the next president, also something they did not believe a few months ago. But that is what a victory in Iowa and an extremely strong showing in New Hampshire will get you -- confidence.

John Edwards is a distant third but has picked up ground in the last week, rising as much as 9 percent, which still puts him behind Clinton by at least 11 %. According to a Mason-Dixon Poll, Obama leads with 38 %, Clinton with 30 %, and Edwards with 19 %. Reuters/C-Span/Zogby has it 38, 25, 21 -- in the same order. The latter gives Edwards more leverage and puts him and Clinton in a virtual tie. If Edwards pulls off a second-place finish, there could still be a chance for him to capture the nomination. But he has to do well in South Carolina, or so say the analysts.

I disagree. John Edwards could lose South Carolina and on Super Tuesday, February 5, do well enough in those elections to put himself in the lead (or a really close second) in this race. As long as he remains in the race, Edwards has a shot. Admittedly, it is a long shot, but with Clinton and Obama sniping at each other, Edwards has become the voice of reason in the Democratic Party. As he told David Letterman the other night, he now represents the "grown up" part of the Democratic Party. And he could be right. Saturday's primary will be a good indicator.