Why Residential Real Estate Will Not Rebound Until 2013

Real estate prices will not rebound any time soon.

Housing is cyclical and we had a tremendous 8 year cycle which produced 150% appreciation between 1997 and 2005. This cycle was extended past its natural course through unprecedented low mortgage rates which bottomed at 4% for "variable" rates that were fixed for 3 or 5 years. Also contributing to the boom were loosened lending rules such as "interest only" loans which keep the payments artificially low and "stated income" loans which bypass income verification, making loans available to people who would normally not qualify. In my home area of Southern California, the prior down cycle also coincidentally lasted 8 years, starting in 1989, bottoming in 1995, and rebounding in 1997, causing 20% haircuts from top to bottom.

These cycles always go through the same phases: greed, denial, fear, pain and resolution. First speculators disappear, prices become stagnant, and houses stay on the market. "For sale" signs creep up as demand vanishes and sellers sit on their houses longer, creating a greater supply and putting more downward pricing pressure. Sellers reduce their asking prices, builders offer special incentives. The inventory builds up, desperate sellers discount further, some default on their payments, and the repossession phase starts. Banks, who are not in the business of owning homes, dump them at or below what is owned on the mortgage. They tighten lending standards as they no longer want marginal buyers, reducing the pool of available buyers in the process. All this drives housing values further down. Builders continue to reduce production to meet the shrinking demand, and lay off employees who in turn put their homes on the market as they no longer can afford a mortgage. The vicious cycle continues until the stage where eventually supply and demand get back in balance, prices stabilize and homes start selling within a reasonable period of time.