Who Will Benefit from John Edwards?

An Analysis of How Edwards Dropping Out of the 2008 Race Will Affect the Democratic Primary

By Travis Dahle, published Jan 30, 2008
Published Content: 60  Total Views: 34,751  Favorited By: 2 CPs
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In June of 2000, I was able to attend the annual fund-raising dinner for the South Dakota Democratic Party then titled the "Jefferson-Jackson Dinner Day" and has now been changed to the "George McGovern Dinner Day" in honor of our former Senator and Democratic nominee in 1972, George McGovern. At the dinner, the leaders of the party speak and they usually bring a nationally known speaker with them. In 2000, one of those speakers was a then little known Senator from North Carolina named John Edwards.

He was a dynamic speaker and one of my friends afterward said "He's going to run for President some day." Well, that day arrived in 2004 when he made a big push for the nomination and eventually bowed out and became the Vice-Presidential nominee under John Kerry. After the lose, I knew that Edwards would be back and in 2008 he had an uphill battle against two highly popular candidates in Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. According to the New York Times, Edwards has realized that his battle was too big of a hill to climb and has decided to drop out of the race. Unfortunately, his message of populism and fighting for the lower class never got enough attention away from the major candidates to make a huge impact for himself. The campaign, according to a CNN article, said that it just couldn't get the media attention that it needed to compete. What is ironic is that his dropping out is probably going to have a bigger impact than his running ever did, and here is why: it will help Barack Obama win the nomination.

Takeaways
  • Edwards dropping out of the race will end the splitting of the "Anti-Hillary" vote for Obama.
  • Edwards was campaigning for change like Obama, meaning his supporters will gravitate towards Obama.
  • Edwards is going to continue to work for the poor by joining Habitat for Humanity
Comments
Showing Comments 1 - 14 of 14
 
 
But it should also be remembered that along with 'anti-hillary' feelings, many women are coming out of the woodwork to support her. Often, women who have never participated in politics before. I think Edward's voters will turn to Obama, however I don't think either candidate is going to win with a landslide. It's going to be a close race to the end. Cantor, a Hillary/Bill ticket is not possible. Bill Clinton can not serve as Vice President, as he would never be able to step in as President should anything happen to Hillary. Since that's Job Number 1 for VP, he's not eligible. Remember that Chenney was acting President while Bush had a colonoscopy? Bill simply can't run as VP.

Posted on 02/04/2008 at 3:02:15 PM

 
Great Article, with excellent theories, thanks for this one.

Posted on 02/01/2008 at 11:02:03 PM

 
It's a partial win for Clinton as well. Any time one or the other surged ahead, Edwards was the one to incite attacks against them. This allowed Obama especially to avoid muck earlier in the campaign. No longer.

Posted on 02/01/2008 at 1:02:51 PM

 
Great article! I've been wondering who will benefit from Edwards. My local paper said Clinton, but on CNN I read that it was more likely that Obama would. I find CNN more credible than my local paper, but it will be interesting to see what happens! Once again, great article! Thanks!

Posted on 02/01/2008 at 1:02:10 PM

 
Nice article. An Obama-Edwards ticket is impossible, as is a Hillary-Edwards ticket. Even less possible is a possible Hillary-Obama/Obama-Hillary ticket. Whoever the nominee is, will have to pick a governor. We havent elected two senators in a long, long time. Theres just something about governors the american voter likes. As for Bill and Hillary being a package, you'll see a strategy put in play emphasizing his work with his Foundation. This 'package' issue wont be an issue. As for his impeachment, his approval rating rose to 73% the very day the House impeached him. The public has already made their minds up about that whole political witch hunt, its not gonna be an issue. She'll need to define what his role will be, and she'll have to form her own theme like Bill had his with the "building a bridge to the 21st Century".

Posted on 02/01/2008 at 11:02:30 AM

 
Kucinich is an interesting guy. I know locally many supporters~maybe it is all those aging hippies in the area and the young Peace Corp volunteers in the area. His wife just turned 30; he carried on about his un-electablity because the people do not vote for short people or vegetarians and there are people that do not think UFO's could possibly exist. He just does not have mass appeal. Ron Paul is popular because he is one of the few that voted no to the Patriot Act. I might have voted for him except I do not vote for Libertarians and think he is stuck in the 1950s world. He is one of the few in government that actually knows there is no law requiring citizens pay a Federal Income tax, but that we volunteer to pay it when we sign that W-4 form. I read the Income tax law a dozen times to be sure I understood it. People that know the real reasons behind our illegal invasion of Iraq are many which is why so many are still trying to get Cheney/Bush impeached.

Posted on 02/01/2008 at 2:02:27 AM

 
Hillary and Bill are a package deal, so it is okay with people that a president that was 1/2 impeached and lied under oath to the Supreme Court is acceptable? Hillary wrote "I gasped" she was so sure Bill was telling the truth and Monica was a liar. She also said she gave the Iraq issue "careful study" about two years ago. Now she says, "we acted on false intelligence" and "it is Bush's war..." (and so on). She has sent out campaign literature in NH (I can not verify but one of her high level NOW supporters was shown it by a friend) that actually lied (libel or slander?). I have seen her lie through out her campaign. The point is that one, she either lied about trusting Bill or she is not able to discern truth. Perhaps people do not see the rise in violence among youth is in direct proportion to what the adults do. The Clintons have shown a pattern of lies and corruption. I am not trying to convince you, I was just speculating as to Edwards supporters.

Posted on 02/01/2008 at 2:02:53 AM

 
Well done Travis. I was an Edwards supporter back in 2004, but he moved too far to the left for me this time around.

Posted on 02/01/2008 at 12:02:28 AM

 
Interesting comments Alyce. I'm not sure if it is a huge Anti-War vote, otherwise I think Kuscinich and Paul would get a lot more attention then they do (of course, an argument has been made that the media, which is owned by companies who benefit from the war, tried to exclude them, but I really don't want to get into that argument here). I understand what you are saying, but disagree on the lying about Monica...was it Hillary's fault? How many people did it kill? I would argue that Bush's lying and Hillary's voting for it (and her support of an Iran invasion as well) is what has turned off more people than the whole Monica affair (myself included), since it was Bill who lied about it (essentially so Hillary wouldn't find out). Again, not a great role model, which is why I am sure some people are not going to vote for her, but it probably is more the anti-war vote than anything, which is one part of an anti-Hillary vote

Posted on 01/31/2008 at 12:01:16 PM

 
Considering that Edwards was pro-peace, Obama may get some of his supporters. Considering that Edwards and Clinton's Health Care Plan was mostly identical they may go for her. There is also the possibility that some will vote in the Republican primary in the states that do not demand an either or choice. One thing for sure, this has been a most interesting primary season, never know what to expect from one day to the next.

Posted on 01/31/2008 at 12:01:45 PM

 
The reason I did not consider Edwards was due to his You Choose .08 You Tube channel Intro video. I did go back and check him out after much insistence that he was one of the good guys. But before I made my choice I took another look at that video of introduction. It seemed to be aimed at a limited audience; I did not know anything about who he is; what he has done; or what he plans to do for we, the people. I made my choice based on voting records and issues. Obama and Clinton vote almost identically. But I am a Code Pink lady and I recall what she told us then and how she lies now. I can not have someone who says "oops, sorry I acted on faulty intelligence" and your son died in the illegal invasion of Iraq. That she would vote yes on the Iran Resolution shows she has no common sense and makes choices based on fear and someone else's intelligence. We can not pay for Iraq why the rush into Iran? There were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq...

Posted on 01/31/2008 at 12:01:39 PM

 
Could it be anti-illegal war vote rather than anti-Hillary? Or perhaps we want better role models in the White House than an 1/2 impeached ex President? Lie under oath to the Supreme Court, still can be First Man in the White House? What a message for our children. That whole Monica thing had the man on the street empowered with disrespect for the ladies and lots of jokes at female's expense. The Clintons lying their way through the campaign and smear tactics versus the other candidates attempt at clean politics, selling themselves on their merits and what they want to do for the people has turned off Democrats. She should have not been allowed to run, due to Bill's past behavior when holding the highest office and the little guys want that type of lies and corruption out of the government. Sad that some worthy candidates were knocked off the ballot before most of the country could have their voice heard.

Posted on 01/31/2008 at 12:01:46 PM

 
Thanks Shane, glad you enjoyed it!

Posted on 01/31/2008 at 10:01:55 AM

 
Great article with really solid analysis. Thanks!

Posted on 01/31/2008 at 10:01:37 AM

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