Is There Any Oscar Suspense Left?

In the Sunday before the Super Bowl, the SAG Awards were held on TBS. Since the Oscars were still in danger at the time, it might have been the last major awards gathering of the entire movie year. But the most striking thing about the ceremony was that there were no real upsets or suspense whatsoever in the most important categories. Ruby Dee's win was a surprise, but she is still considered a long shot for Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars. Now that the Oscars have released their nominations yet, one has to wonder if there is any more suspense left in the Oscar season at all.

The opinions of critics don't always mean a great deal to the Academy. But it's clear that there are very substantial favorites in each Oscar race already. This was reflected very specifically in the other SAG winners, and in the other pre-Oscar ceremonies. "No Country for Old Men", The Coen Brothers, Daniel Day Lewis, Julie Christie, Javier Bardem, and Amy Ryan have often been the six winners in most of these pre-Oscar award ceremonies. If they all maintain their leads at the Oscars, they are likely well deserved wins. But at this point, they won't provide a lot of suspense in doing so.

"No Country for Old Men" faces the jinx of being the early Oscar frontrunner. There's always an ever present risk that voters might not embrace it in the way that others have, causing last minute suspense. However, the competition has not had much success in catching up to "No Country" yet. "Atonement" is no longer a front runner due to mediocre award performances, and would have to beat back a lot of Oscar history with a win. The one movie that has even approached "No Country"'s acclaim is "There Will Be Blood" and that film now has some pop culture visibility since its famous "I drink your milkshake" line is now a bonafide catch phrase. But "Blood" also faces worries about how Oscar voters will handle its hard, unsparing approach.