Midseason Replacements & Backdoor Pilots: Why They Seem to Produce Hits Every TV Season

Every single year when the new TV season starts in September--I expect the failure rate of new shows to get higher and higher. And while the theory is obviously right execs at the networks cancel shows before given a chance to build an audience--some of the early cancellations of debuting shows in the fall are put on the chopping block for one reason: They just aren't good. It's downright appalling sometimes how bad some of the shows that had high enough budgets to get extensive coverage in TV Guide's fall preview issue get put on the air ahead of other deserving shows. But those other deserving shows usually get a chance the following January, February or March when more than 80% of the selected shows for the fall are already history. What's interesting is that midseason replacements (and the lesser-used process of backdoor pilot TV movies) almost always produce a major hit that returns in the following fall season.

Yes, it sounds as if the networks are too dense to see the pattern there. But are they really just using a different business move that gives the appearance of ignorance?