Risk Management, Value and Late Round Drafting

Why managing risk is the key consideration in end game picks, and whether an owner should seek high or low variability.

When I write about the concept of value and its lack of vitality, I recognize that I am partly a lone voice railing against the traditional measures of "value" when dealing with the top of the player pyramid. As a result one can easily criticize my theories based on the notion that I am giving owners carte blanche to choose whatever player they want.

In a way that is true. My next column at RotoTimes' premium site will attack the premise that in the later rounds who you pick is important. So not only am I now attacking the hobby's most sacrosanct commandment at the top of the pyramid, I am also attacking it at the bottom.

In fact, it makes little to no difference to pursue "value" in later rounds as well. Each General needs to carve out a plan, and decide what criteria are to be used in the later round picks, value be damned. Often this may need to be done on the fly in a short amount of time, especially in online drafts. The concept of risk management is key; given what has come before the General needs to decide whether to maximize or minimize risk. Only then can one consider whether to go for "value" or "reliability" or "stats" or whatever other criteria is used.

I think that the best "default" strategy is to is just select whomever one wants and believes will vastly out produce the round. You try to hit a homerun with every pick, and cut loose those that are not homeruns quickly to replenish from the free agent pool. However, this is an individual choice mapped out ahead of time and planned for by the expert player, so that decision on whether to deviate or follow course can be made swiftly and correctly.

There is a sliding scale that must be considered. On the one hand we have the probabilistic theory of projections, as I have pointed out previously. On the other we have the risk involved with the projection. Consider these to be akin to the supply and demand curves in basic economics. The intersection of the supply and demand curves is the optimum solution.